I'm (mostly) copying a post I just made on Facebook here, because I'd like to see what you lot think.
*****
So, 12 days ago, I posted about the exponential nature of the numbers associated with this pandemic:
https://www.macleans.ca/society/heal...WGSSnz2gMXO6Ow
At the time, I estimated the doubling time in Canada was about every 4 days, and so we'd have to wait 8 to 12 days to see if our efforts were having any effect. Well, there's good news and bad, folks.
The good news is, we can absolutely see a change in the Canadian numbers! You can see the graphs here:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/
They break it down into total cases, new cases, and deaths. In all three instances, you can see that the exponential curve has flattened out. We're still seeing new cases every day, but the number of new cases is roughly the same each day - the rate is not accelerating, which is really good news, compared to what we were seeing 12 days ago. Go Team Canada, Great Work!
The bad news comes when you compare the Canadian numbers to the US numbers. See the same data for the US here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
All three of those curves are still exponential. All Three. That is a critical observation, because it means the increasing number of new cases likely isn't just a matter of the US testing more people now. The number of deaths would likely be independent of the number of tests, and it is following the same type of curve. This tells me that the US efforts are not having the same effect as the Canadian efforts.
And since we're right next to them on this continent, that's probably not good news for us. At this point I don't want to try to predict exactly where this is going to go, because now it's outside the realm of science and math. Now it's down to people, and how they react, and I've given up trying to figure out what some of the people in charge down there are thinking. But if I were a betting man (and I am), I'd put my money on things getting a lot worse before they get better.
Hang on fellow Canucks, it's going to be a bumpy ride, despite all our best efforts.
*****
Comments?
*****
So, 12 days ago, I posted about the exponential nature of the numbers associated with this pandemic:
https://www.macleans.ca/society/heal...WGSSnz2gMXO6Ow
At the time, I estimated the doubling time in Canada was about every 4 days, and so we'd have to wait 8 to 12 days to see if our efforts were having any effect. Well, there's good news and bad, folks.
The good news is, we can absolutely see a change in the Canadian numbers! You can see the graphs here:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/canada/
They break it down into total cases, new cases, and deaths. In all three instances, you can see that the exponential curve has flattened out. We're still seeing new cases every day, but the number of new cases is roughly the same each day - the rate is not accelerating, which is really good news, compared to what we were seeing 12 days ago. Go Team Canada, Great Work!
The bad news comes when you compare the Canadian numbers to the US numbers. See the same data for the US here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
All three of those curves are still exponential. All Three. That is a critical observation, because it means the increasing number of new cases likely isn't just a matter of the US testing more people now. The number of deaths would likely be independent of the number of tests, and it is following the same type of curve. This tells me that the US efforts are not having the same effect as the Canadian efforts.
And since we're right next to them on this continent, that's probably not good news for us. At this point I don't want to try to predict exactly where this is going to go, because now it's outside the realm of science and math. Now it's down to people, and how they react, and I've given up trying to figure out what some of the people in charge down there are thinking. But if I were a betting man (and I am), I'd put my money on things getting a lot worse before they get better.
Hang on fellow Canucks, it's going to be a bumpy ride, despite all our best efforts.
*****
Comments?
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