Last election for the House before November, to be held in less than 48 hours
This is a GOP leaning district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 for the current cycle.
The candidates are Troy Balderson (R), Danny O'Connor (D) and Joe Manchik (G).
The polls have shown Balderson leading for more than 10 points in the beginning as he is a state senator while O'Connor remained a pretty unknown county recorder. That lead has been shrinking during the campaign and today Balderson is about 4 points ahead.
In the end, this election will depend on the turnout, so it's quite the laboratory of what may happen next November. Monmouth University poll, developed during the last days of July gives these three scenarios:
-One with a very low turnout, favouring Balderson who would (or woudn't?) win by 5% (Down from 15% one month ago)
-Another one with a typical mid-election turnout showing a virtual tie. In this scenario Balderson held a sizable 9% advantage in June's poll (same pollster), but now it has come down to a virtual tie (46% Balderson, 45% O'Connor).
-A "Democratic surge" model having O'Connor ahead by 1% (in this model O'Connor trailed by 7% one month ago).
So, the election looks like a toss-up for this and other pollsters, but overall it still seems this election is more like leaning-Republican.
Stay tuned. There'll hardly be surprises (but you might get surprised)
This is a GOP leaning district, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 for the current cycle.
The candidates are Troy Balderson (R), Danny O'Connor (D) and Joe Manchik (G).
The polls have shown Balderson leading for more than 10 points in the beginning as he is a state senator while O'Connor remained a pretty unknown county recorder. That lead has been shrinking during the campaign and today Balderson is about 4 points ahead.
In the end, this election will depend on the turnout, so it's quite the laboratory of what may happen next November. Monmouth University poll, developed during the last days of July gives these three scenarios:
-One with a very low turnout, favouring Balderson who would (or woudn't?) win by 5% (Down from 15% one month ago)
-Another one with a typical mid-election turnout showing a virtual tie. In this scenario Balderson held a sizable 9% advantage in June's poll (same pollster), but now it has come down to a virtual tie (46% Balderson, 45% O'Connor).
-A "Democratic surge" model having O'Connor ahead by 1% (in this model O'Connor trailed by 7% one month ago).
So, the election looks like a toss-up for this and other pollsters, but overall it still seems this election is more like leaning-Republican.
Stay tuned. There'll hardly be surprises (but you might get surprised)
via International Skeptics Forum https://ift.tt/2vkSnL7
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