vendredi 9 juillet 2021

Afghanistan

Seems like relevant topic. There's been some discussion in U.S.-focused political threads, but this goes beyond that. For example, the British are feeling in a bit of a lurch by the relatively rapid decision.

The U.S. and its allies are pulling out, Taliban advancing.

Taliban capture key Afghanistan border crossings

My take is that is is a no win situation in every way.

We can't fully defeat the Taliban and its allies. But when they reassume full control, we'll get unpleasant reminders of how brutal they can be. There will be blaming and recriminations, and one can bet that many of the politicians and pundits (all over, not just in the U.S.) who called for withdrawal will conveniently forget they ever said that and blame all the other politicians and pundits who made the same arguments.

But that does not mean that we (the U.S.) should go back in again like we did with Iraq.

I don't think we'll see a big refugee exodus like after Vietnam, if for no other reason that it's a landlocked country with some pretty brutal neighbors. The Taliban has always been strongest along the border with Pakistan, so that limits the route out of the country. Iran feels no love for the Sunni Muslims who make up most of Afghanistan's population, they won't want to support large refugee movements either, but might support efforts by some Afghans to keep the Taliban from gaining full control of all areas.


via International Skeptics Forum https://ift.tt/3xvhKrN

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