Suppose you were handed an object you knew nothing about. Except that it will explode sometime in the next billion years. Could be next second, could be a million years from now. Would fear be a rational response to having it near you? I don't think it would, but I'm having trouble with this.
Here's my reasoning so far: in order to be afraid of it, you would have to have a good reason to think there's a decent chance the device could explode "pretty soon" (let's say in your lifetime). Since we know nothing about the device, an explosion at each point in time on any timeline is just as likely as any other point in time on any other timeline. There are X points of time on a 70 year timeline (let's say, for simplicity, that X = 1 year. X could be anything though, doesn't matter). However, there are about a billion more X's on the timeline PAST 70 years. Each of those billion X's are just as likely as the ones on the timeline you're worried about (the one that only goes as far as your lifetime). So the odds of it exploding in your lifetime should be extremely small, and you should be comfortable having it as a knicknack on the fireplace mantle.
But I wouldn't be comfortable with it. What if the trigger that makes it explode is me turning 38? Or a nearby hill eroding a nanometer. Since I know nothing about the device, I can't really assign any odds to these scenarios, and those scenarios, it goes without saying, would make me very uneasy. But there are only X amount of those kind of "explosion" scenarios that occur in my lifetime, but there are X+billion "explosion" scenarios that occur PAST my lifetime that are also just as likely to occur. That's where I'm stuck. I still don't want the thing in my house. But I don't think that's a rational fear.
Here's my reasoning so far: in order to be afraid of it, you would have to have a good reason to think there's a decent chance the device could explode "pretty soon" (let's say in your lifetime). Since we know nothing about the device, an explosion at each point in time on any timeline is just as likely as any other point in time on any other timeline. There are X points of time on a 70 year timeline (let's say, for simplicity, that X = 1 year. X could be anything though, doesn't matter). However, there are about a billion more X's on the timeline PAST 70 years. Each of those billion X's are just as likely as the ones on the timeline you're worried about (the one that only goes as far as your lifetime). So the odds of it exploding in your lifetime should be extremely small, and you should be comfortable having it as a knicknack on the fireplace mantle.
But I wouldn't be comfortable with it. What if the trigger that makes it explode is me turning 38? Or a nearby hill eroding a nanometer. Since I know nothing about the device, I can't really assign any odds to these scenarios, and those scenarios, it goes without saying, would make me very uneasy. But there are only X amount of those kind of "explosion" scenarios that occur in my lifetime, but there are X+billion "explosion" scenarios that occur PAST my lifetime that are also just as likely to occur. That's where I'm stuck. I still don't want the thing in my house. But I don't think that's a rational fear.
via JREF Forum http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=263656&goto=newpost
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire