lundi 10 août 2020

Can veeries predict hurricane season better than meteorologists?

So I was watching a thing on Netflix yesterday, and they said that veeries, a kind of migratory bird, could predict the intensity of hurricane season with high accuracy. Better than meteorologists' models do. The predictor is how early in the season they begin their annual migration to South America.

I don't doubt that it might be a survival advantage for them to be able to do this, but how could they possibly know this in advance?

Are These Birds Better Than Computers at Predicting Hurricane Seasons? (Audubon)

A Nearctic-Neotropical Migratory Songbird’s Nesting Phenology and Clutch Size are Predictors of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (Nature)

Personally, I would like to see this finding replicated before I would have a high degree of confidence in it.

If it turns out to be true, that would be valuable information, if it can improve weather forecasts.


via International Skeptics Forum https://ift.tt/3gGTbQ5

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