samedi 9 juillet 2022

Voting with their feet: What system people in the West, and in Russia, prefer

In a post subsequently sent to AAH, CE presented us with this link to a recent "Nice little speech" by Putler, along with a lengthy quote from the English translation. I want to pick only one sentence from this demagoguery filled with lies and nods to vile conspiracy theories, and see whether it holds water:
Quote:

Originally Posted by Putler
...However, the truth and reality is that the people in most of these [Western] countries do not want this life or this future [i.e. "totalitarian liberalism, including the notorious cancel culture of widespread bans", etc.], and really do not want the formal semblance of sovereignty, they want substantive, real sovereignty and are simply tired of kneeling, of humiliating themselves before those who consider themselves exceptional, and of serving their interests even to their own detriment. ...

One way to look at whether people in the West really want a different system, particularly one more like Russia's, is to see whether people take a decision to actually leave the system and emigrate to, hopefully, greener pastures.

Here is EXHIBIT A:

the statistics of migration between Germany (evil West) and Russia (land of glory and freedom):
https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pr...F9F91A.live731

Use Google translate, or any other translator.

The short is that there were 200,000 people living in Germany of Russian (and only) Russian nationality (about the same number , or possibly a little less, has dual citizenship German+Russian and is not counted in this statistic).
Every year, about twice as many Russians move from Russia to Germany than people of any nationality move from Germany to Russia: Since 2006, every year between 13,000 and 33,000 moved RU->DE, while between 8,000 and 16,000 moved the other direction DE->RU. Both numbers have tended to decline.
The same, by the way, is roughly true, only at half the scale, with migration between Ukraine and Germany.

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EXHIBIT B: Foreign population in Russia

I would like to point out the number of 93,000 Germans living in Russia as per 2019, with a net decline in that number from 2018.

The source for that number is this Russian PDF, page 17, the table at the bottom, second line.
Interesting: While the numbers of Germans in the years 2016 -2019 were 93815; 103321; 96033; 92997 respectively, so up and down, the number given for 2105 was 229,336!

Table 1 in that PDF, on page 16, lists the migration surplus (Google translate: "Migration growth of the population of Russia in 2014-2019, data for January-April, thousand people"): First line is the sum of all countries, second line is the sum for the CIS (ex-Soviet) countries. We see that between 88% and almost 100% of the total number of net immigrants comes from the former Soviet states (i.e. not the West), with the rest of the world (China, India, North Korea - oh yeah, and all the rest of the world) accounting for typically under 4,000.

So which other countries account for that low but positive number? The text on page 16 say: "The largest increase in the number of arrivals [is] from China (by 2.35 times), Serbia (by 2.17 times), Syria (by 1.93 times)." No Western country there! Hm!

The graph and table 2 on page 17 are interesting: Figure 2 shows the total number of foreigners in Russia, month per month, for the lost recent years: There is a clear seasonality there.

Table 2 - compare the total number of foreigners between 2015 and 2019: Some CIS countries have marked increases (Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan), some stayed roughly the same (Armenia, Uzbekistan), but some declined markedly: Kazakhstan - and Ukraine and Moldova, the two most "Western" of the CIS countries.

The tl;dr to this is: Russia is only attractive for labor immigration for some Central Asian countries of the former USSR, and then essentially no one else. The number of Western nationals in Russia, although not high to begin with, declined (with the exception of France).

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I'll stop for the moment with the exhibits.

If anyone has well-sourced stats for migration to and from Russia since the beginning of the war, that would be great!
I have little doubt that is will show people fleeing Russia, not the West.

Putler just told a silly lie.


via International Skeptics Forum https://ift.tt/TUJjm4X

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