If polls are not reliable, why not? The most frequently cited answer for why Trump-related polls are unreliable is social desirability bias. There are also potential issues of sampling bias.
Here's a narrative. I'm sure you'll let me know if I'm mis-remembering.
I recall in 2012 Romney was having these huge rallies. People said "no Republican has had a rally like this in Pennsylvania since forever," etc. The NYT's Nate Silver confidently predicted an Obama win. And win Obama did. Silver predicted every single state correctly. The Republicans who thought Romney would win were pilloried by the elite media and Twitter as anti-science, knuckle-dragging mouth-breathers.
Silver became a meme, started his own website, and released a popular book about statistics. Since then I want to say I noticed an uptick among conservatives distrusting polls. "Nobody's ever called me for one of these polls." Another frequent comment became, "I'd never tell a stranger things about my politics or my living situation." Some bragged about lying. In other words, I wonder if conservatives have been socialized into misleading pollsters. I'm inclined to believe these are marginal actors (like with "Operation Chaos"), but I do wonder...
Silver famously pegged Trump's chances of winning in 2016 at 30%. His defenders this election cycle are saying he correctly predicted 48 states (which isn't quite right because he said all of Maine's Electoral Votes would go to Biden).
Here's a narrative. I'm sure you'll let me know if I'm mis-remembering.
I recall in 2012 Romney was having these huge rallies. People said "no Republican has had a rally like this in Pennsylvania since forever," etc. The NYT's Nate Silver confidently predicted an Obama win. And win Obama did. Silver predicted every single state correctly. The Republicans who thought Romney would win were pilloried by the elite media and Twitter as anti-science, knuckle-dragging mouth-breathers.
Silver became a meme, started his own website, and released a popular book about statistics. Since then I want to say I noticed an uptick among conservatives distrusting polls. "Nobody's ever called me for one of these polls." Another frequent comment became, "I'd never tell a stranger things about my politics or my living situation." Some bragged about lying. In other words, I wonder if conservatives have been socialized into misleading pollsters. I'm inclined to believe these are marginal actors (like with "Operation Chaos"), but I do wonder...
Silver famously pegged Trump's chances of winning in 2016 at 30%. His defenders this election cycle are saying he correctly predicted 48 states (which isn't quite right because he said all of Maine's Electoral Votes would go to Biden).
via International Skeptics Forum https://ift.tt/3p8bwKi
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