dimanche 23 février 2020

Black Swan Event Under Way

I have it on record in the covid thread, but this is about money and the impact covid will have on the global economy.

Oxford Economics suggest a hit to global economy of 1.2 trillion dollars, which I think is light.

While most people won't be too sick with it, some will, and even if 10% of workforces require 3-4 weeks off sick, that is going to have a massive effect on the world's supply chain. Most importantly, it's likely to all happen at once - it won't ripple through like 'flu, everyone will get it very quickly.

Some companies will be forced to close doors for extended periods, loan defaults will skyrocket, and the sharmarkets will tumble once the size of the impact becomes known.

On Friday, I recommended to several businesspeople I know that they should invest in TVIX - a hedge fund against global downturns. The shares were $38 at Friday lunchtime, and they've opened today at $49. I know two took my advice and threw five grand in on Friday.

They've made a grand over the weekend, with lots more to come.

I can see TVIX going well into the hundreds of dollars range if the pandemic goes the way it looks certain to.

Investment advice: buy TVIX now.

Disclaimer - I am not a financial adviser.


via International Skeptics Forum https://ift.tt/38V1lQO

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