US Foreign-Policy Cycles

From Arthur Schlesinger Jr., Cycles of American History:

Quote:

A cyclical rhythm exists in foreign policy as well. Over thirty years ago Frank L. Klingberg analyzed what he called “the historical alternation of moods in American foreign policy.” He uncovered a periodic swing between “extroversion”— a readiness to use direct diplomatic, military or economic pressure on other nations to gain American ends— and “introversion”— a concentration on concerns of the national community. Examining wars, annexations, armed expeditions, naval expenditures, presidential statements and party platforms, Klingberg in 1952 identified seven alternations since 1776 ...

Also

(Page 7 of 56) - Long-Term US Foreign Policy Moods and Involvement in System Wars: Is There Any Way to Reduce the Odds? authored by Lawrence, Colin., Holmes, Jack., Johnson, Lauren. and Aardema, Sara.

Peter Beinart - The Isolation Pendulum



Extroverted phases ("Ex") usually last around 27 years, and introverted phase ("In") around 21 years.



1776 - 1797 -- In -- Revolution and establishment of national government, with its Constitution.



1798 - 1823 -- Ex -- Naval war with France, the Louisiana Purchase, the War of 1812 with Britain



1824 - 1844 -- In -- Nullification crisis. Texas becomes independent of Mexico but does not become a US state right away. Rebellion in Lower Canada, but the US misses a chance to try to "liberate" Canada from Britain. The proto-US failed in 1775, and the US failed in 1812.



1845 - 1870 -- Ex -- The US annexes Texas and the Oregon Territory, conquers NW Mexico. The Civil War qualifies as external because of secession.



1871 - 1890 -- In -- (not much)



1891 - 1918 -- Ex -- The Spanish-American war, including taking over Cuba and the Philippines. World War I: from "too proud to fight" to "making the world safe for democracy".



1919 - 1939 -- In -- Rejection of the League of Nations, attempted neutrality: the Neutrality Acts.



1940 - 1967 -- Ex -- World War II, Cold War, Korean War, Vietnam War



1968 - 1988 -- In -- Getting out of the Vietnam War by "Vietnamization", détente with the Soviet Union, "Vietnam syndrome", Ronald Reagan, despite sometimes seeming unhappy with anything less than World War III, does not commit large numbers of troops abroad.



1989 - ???? -- Ex -- Post-Cold-War assertion, Gulf War, War on Terror in Afghanistan and Iraq



If the cycles continue on schedule, then another introverted era should start in 2016 and last until 2037.





This cycle is much like the Arthur Schlesingers' liberal-conservative cycle, but is out of sync with that cycle. That suggests that internal social dynamics is responsible.



In the Schlesingers' liberal-conservative cycle, conservative eras accumulate problems that society's elites are unwilling to address, provoking a burst of reform and transition into a liberal era. The reformers find it hard to sustain massive efforts for very long, especially when they seem to have won some big battles. They also sometimes seem to go too far. Thus, a transition into a conservative era with its more "normal" existence.



The Klingberg extroverted-introverted cycle may be similar. During an introverted era, unmet challenges from foreign powers may accumulate, provoking a transition into extroversion. But big wars can cause burnout on foreign adventures, especially those that do not seem very successful. Thus, a transition into introversion.



Burnout wars: the War of 1812, the Civil War, World War I, the Vietnam War, the War on Terror

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