Could the South Have Won?

I didn't see one of these active, so apologies if it's already been covered.

I think there was at least one occasion where the South could have at least gotten much better terms for quitting the war.

In 1864, things weren't going so well. Grant was bogged down in a siege outside Petersburg. Sherman was trying to bring on a general engagement with Johnston, but Johntson knowing Lincoln was very unpopular, kept deftly maneuvering his army out Sherman's way. It looked to the war-weary public that not much had been accomplished, and McClellan (McClellan of all people!) looked like he might actually defeat Abe in the election.

We know what happened: Johnston was replaced by Hood, who gave Sherman the battle he wanted, and Atlanta was lost. Lincoln was reelected.

But what if Johnston had stayed in? What if he had played the defensive warfare game and drawn things out such that Atlanta would have been spared (or only under siege)? Could McClellan have beaten Lincoln? And if McClellan had won, what would his policy towards the Southern states have been?

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