London Olympics: Economic Impact Study Questionable?

Quote:

"That "modeling" is key. In a study like this, economists create an exclusive model, like an original equation or recipe. The model shapes the conclusions. The authors might have avoided potential criticism that they skewed the model in the government's favor if they'd published this study in a peer-reviewed academic journal. But Turner says everyone wanted this document to be usable, not just for academics. ... Turner and his colleagues did bring in peer advisors — outsiders who were invited to consult on the study. "Invariably we took those views on board," Turner says. When asked whether the study came with the endorsement of the outside peer reviewers, Turner replied, "Very much so. The peer reviewers felt that it was a robust and comprehensive study." ... That does not match the description of peer reviewer Stefan Szymanski, who told NPR, "I thought this was tantamount to a whitewash." Szymanski, who is a professor of Sports Management and Economics at the University of Michigan, says "The report provided a very bullish view, refused to comment on any of the negatives, or even to really qualify any of the results, and I was very unhappy about this." In an email to Turner before the report was published, Szymanski wrote, "I'm very uncomfortable about the triumphalist tone of the report, which does not reflect what the data is saying." He added, "It should be stated clearly that the opinions expressed in the report are yours and not mine." Szymanski says the authors sent him the final draft with one week to make comments. Crucially, they wouldn't let him preview the model — the formula that produced the numbers in the report. Szymanski says that's "extremely unusual." ... There were three other peer reviewers. One did not assess the final report. Another looked at the redevelopment of East London, but not the financial investment. The third peer reviewer is not an expert in economic analysis. So Szymanski was the only person with expertise in statistical number crunching who looked at this study before it was published. And he describes it as a "political document" that ignores massive amounts of economic research showing Olympics are almost always unprofitable.

Linky.



The end of the article is a statement that we will have to wait much longer for any indications.

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