Since it looks increasingly likely that we are going to have a second independence referendum in the space of 3 or 4 years I thought we might as well start a new thread on it.
My sense is that the case will be a harder sell with the oil price in the gutter and I have a feeling that the implications of a non-EU UK and a Scotland in the EU hen worked through will likely not be trumped by the sense of injustice and anger at the Leave vote especially as time mellows that particular emotion.
Nicola's goal seems to be to have a referendum in time to prevent Scotland actually leaving the EU and simply continuing as a member. This is going to throw up the same questions we had before about the status of Scotland as a member and while my opinion is that an independent Scotland should be automatically granted membership I doubt that anyone at the EU is going to confirm that prior to an referendum.
Whether the EU would be more supportive to Scotland in the light of Brexit remains to be seen but if the choice is seen as 'leave the UK and hope the EU admit us on their terms' then I can't see it getting over the line.
The current polls show that there isn't a majority in favour of independence in Scotland and it will be interesting to watch how they change in the coming weeks. There seems little point in pushing for a vote that they know they won't win but time is not on their side.
Rock meet hard place.
My sense is that the case will be a harder sell with the oil price in the gutter and I have a feeling that the implications of a non-EU UK and a Scotland in the EU hen worked through will likely not be trumped by the sense of injustice and anger at the Leave vote especially as time mellows that particular emotion.
Nicola's goal seems to be to have a referendum in time to prevent Scotland actually leaving the EU and simply continuing as a member. This is going to throw up the same questions we had before about the status of Scotland as a member and while my opinion is that an independent Scotland should be automatically granted membership I doubt that anyone at the EU is going to confirm that prior to an referendum.
Whether the EU would be more supportive to Scotland in the light of Brexit remains to be seen but if the choice is seen as 'leave the UK and hope the EU admit us on their terms' then I can't see it getting over the line.
The current polls show that there isn't a majority in favour of independence in Scotland and it will be interesting to watch how they change in the coming weeks. There seems little point in pushing for a vote that they know they won't win but time is not on their side.
Rock meet hard place.
via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/28T3lKW
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire