Not sure if this is the best place to post but anyway...
What is the probability of drawing 12 cards from a standard deck (52 + 2 jokers) and getting a hand that includes all 4 Aces?
We have a guy in our RPG gaming group who we believe might be cheating, who draws many hands that suspiciously include a huge amount of Aces and face cards, like all the time. Oh yeah, and when we use dice he ALWAYS rolls above the random probability for his dice pools (and a lot of the time even rolls the maximum). He worked for many years in a casino and we believe he may have picked up a few "habits".
It's a dicy situation because no one wants to accuse without proof, but it would be good to be able to say, "Look, mate, the odds of you drawing the 4 Aces (or all the face cards, or whatever) is "X", and the fact that you've done it seven times in the last gaming session beggars belief."
What is the probability of drawing 12 cards from a standard deck (52 + 2 jokers) and getting a hand that includes all 4 Aces?
We have a guy in our RPG gaming group who we believe might be cheating, who draws many hands that suspiciously include a huge amount of Aces and face cards, like all the time. Oh yeah, and when we use dice he ALWAYS rolls above the random probability for his dice pools (and a lot of the time even rolls the maximum). He worked for many years in a casino and we believe he may have picked up a few "habits".
It's a dicy situation because no one wants to accuse without proof, but it would be good to be able to say, "Look, mate, the odds of you drawing the 4 Aces (or all the face cards, or whatever) is "X", and the fact that you've done it seven times in the last gaming session beggars belief."
via JREF Forum http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=270706&goto=newpost
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