Taleb and Cirillo's destroy Pinker's "Long Peace"

Quote:

And that, I think, is pretty good reason to believe that all talk of the dwindling likelihood of wars based on recent past experience is mostly based on illusion and people telling themselves convincing but probably unfounded stories. Sure it looks as if things are getting more peaceful. But, looking at the mathematics, that’s exactly what we should expect to see, even if we’re most likely due for a much more violent future.

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Taleb & Cirillo paper here
http://ift.tt/1FljLq8

via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/1INDMbb