vendredi 10 mars 2017

What next after Mosul and Raqqa?

Ever since the so-called Islamic State (aka ISIL, ISIS, Da'esh) took over Mosul and declared a caliphate in Raqqa, with Baghdadi as its leader, in 2014, Iraqi forces, backed up by 400 US Army personnel with a further 1,000 reservists due to be deployed by the USA, have now taken back large parts of Mosul in recent months.

News in recent days say that troops are reclaiming the area street by street and the fall of ISIL is imminent, say the pundits.

The old town is still under fundamentalist control - and reports claim that the ISIL leader, Baghdadi has fled, as have the other leaders from Raqqa. It is difficult to ascertain how much of this is propaganda to unnerve the Da'esh, as they are called in the Arabic world, and how much is real intelligence, as fierce fighting and resistance continues, with up to 50K of the Raqqa and Mosul population evacuating the cities daily. With a population of 700K still left in Mosul, it is difficult not to foresee a major humanitarian crisis, as the Iraqi-US forces reach the core of the ISIL strongholds.

My question is, what happens next? The US won't get back Iran. Russia will have its interests in the area. Then there are the thousands of radicialised mostly 20-something Muslims hearing the Caliphate's call and making their way to fight for ISIL from all over Europe, no doubt with some kind of romantic vision of being some kind of heroic freedom fighters.

What will become of them?

Where is Baghdadi?


via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/2n8Xnji

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