jeudi 9 avril 2015

De Ragnarok Computus (Calculating Ragnarök)

As some of you may know, I'm somewhat fascinated by Norse cosmology, as IMHO the only one that basically holds any water as a metaphor. I still find the idea of the heat of Muspellheim expanding into the void of the Ginnungagap ("mighty gap"), cooling down and condensing into matter to be a scarily good description of the Big Bang in some tribal layman's terms. Among other things.



So now let me turn my attention on Ragnarök, and do the religious nutc... err... believer thing and calculate when it's going to happen. Of course, it might be a metaphor. I'm not a literalist. But of course, we'll also assume that what the ancient seer saw is absolutely true. Even the lies. ESPECIALLY the lies.



After all, it has been foreseen by the allfather Odin himself, so how could it be wrong?



For those who don't have much of an idea about Ragnarök, here's a quick summary that you can simply lay back and listen to. There are better and more scholarly sources, of course -- hell, you can even read the originals if you know Icelandic -- but this one seems like one of the most convenient for the casual reader:















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As a sidenote, you may have noted it's also the only religious cosmology where a dying sun can create other suns. Which again is an awesomely correct thing, scientifically speaking. Maybe the seer did know something.



It also helps to establish a few things before I get started:



1. Scale. Things in Norse myths can get REALLY big. Dael touches that with the size of Fenrir, but to drive the point even more home: for example Thor's giant mum, Hlödyn, a.k.a. Jörð, IS Earth. No really, it's even pronouced somewhat like "yorth".



So, yeah, Thor's mum is so big that she has her own gravity well. Literally ;)



Or the Midgard serpent Jörmungandr is big enough to encircle the whole planet. Really big.



2. The Midgard serpent also has a protective role, and cataclismic events happen when he lets go, e.g., during Thor's fishing trip.



3. It has to be some kind of event that can't be avoided, even by the gods themselves, who have foreseen it. So things like "don't press the big red button" probably don't count.



So anyway, what I'd take from their Ragnarök myths is:



- the sun, moon and stars will disappear

- the atmosphere will be poisoned

- earthquakes will stop (not directly in the myth, but the logical implication of Loki, their cause, breaking free)

- something protective that surrounds the planet will "die"

- all Earth will be set on fire

- all Earth will be covered in water



Crazy stuff, right?



Well, here's what's going to start happening in about 1.1 billion years:



- the increase in sun output will cause a runaway effect in ocean evaporation, causing more greenhouse effect, causing more evaporation, etc. It's a safe bet that there will be a thick layer of clouds in the upper atmosphere, where it's cool enough, making the moon, stars and sun effectively "disappear"



- past a certain point, the sheer weight of the water being evaporated into atmosphere will make ground-level pressure be high enough that combined with the estimated temperature of up to 900 degrees, the atmosphere will become mainly supercritical water. Which doesn't just boil everything it touches, it's an extraordinary solvent of organic matter. So, yes, it will become "poison" in that it kills everything



- plate tectonics will stop



- the earth dynamo will stop, and thus the magnetic shield surrounding the earth will stop. At this point solar radiation will begin breaking the water at the edges of the thick atmosphere and hydrogen will start escaping into space. Oxygen content of the atmosphere will rise, checked only by what it can oxidate on the surface



- Venus is a good working model for what happens without plate tectonics. Quoth Wiki, "Without plate tectonics to dissipate heat from its mantle, Venus instead undergoes a cyclical process in which mantle temperatures rise until they reach a critical level that weakens the crust. Then, over a period of about 100 million years, subduction occurs on an enormous scale, completely recycling the crust." Essentially, the whole surface of the planet is periodically "burned" (or more accurately, molten)



- The world will at this point still be covered in supercritical water, a phase where the difference between liquid and gas becomes nonexistent.



Sounds to me like Ragnarök is scarily accurate.



"But wait, you crazy person," someone might say, "is it not also foretold that Earth will rise again, and some humans who were hidden safely will repopulate it? Your scenario has no such turning back. Once Earth starts to get cooked, it'll just get worse until the Sun finally swallows it."



Good point, my imaginary friend, BUT:



- the surviving humans will be in Yggdrasil, when this happens. Watever structure it represents that connects worlds, it is outside of Earth. I.e., the surviving humans will be IN SPACE.



- the emerging new Earth will have a different sun



- it's pretty clear that its flora and stuff are different from our own Earth



Are you pondering what I'm pondering? Yeah, that's not the same Earth again. Humanity will survive by colonizing another solar system.



So, yeah, that's Ragnarök for you. And I've already calculated it.



Repent, heathens, for the end is near. Well, relatively. On a cosmologic scale, everything is nearby ;)



So, yeah, somewhere between 1 and 2 billion years. No hurry. Don't quit your day job and give your wealth to the poor, unless you plan on going to Valhalla to enjoy those years :p



So... what do you guys think?





via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/1Nf5YrP

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