The more I read about the flu the more it becomes clear that the numbers quoted for the flu are based on guesses and rough estimates and little hard data is really available. I have been interested in the flu vaccine information as people keep saying how it is important to get vaccinated against the flu. I will use CDC numbers, although they are pretty rough.
So, the CDC estimate s that between 5-20% of people catch the flu per year. This seems extremely high, but let's stick with it. That means on average 12.5% of people catch the flu per year.
Flu shots are considered 60% effective on the best of years. Some years they are useless as they are for the wrong strain, so we would expect the vaccine to be 30% effective on an average year. To be nice, let's make a bad year 20% effective, boosting the average to 40%.
Over 40 years, a person without a vaccine would be expected to get the flu five times. If the person was vaccinated every year they would get the flu three times over the 40 years with the 40% reduction. This is a 5% improvement per year. Getting vaccinated saves you, on average, one bout of the flu every 20 years.
So, if you suffer common side effects from the flu vaccine, such as fever, feeling sick, muscle pain, etc, the cure may be worse than the disease. If you do not typically suffer the side effects it provides a light benefit.
The real advantage likely comes from the herd effect. Even a poor vaccine has some benefits when it comes to slowing the spread of the flu.
By the looks of it people who do not suffer side effects should get the vaccine for the benifit of others and people who do suffer side effects should consider not getting the shots and tell everyone else to get immunized.
So, the CDC estimate s that between 5-20% of people catch the flu per year. This seems extremely high, but let's stick with it. That means on average 12.5% of people catch the flu per year.
Flu shots are considered 60% effective on the best of years. Some years they are useless as they are for the wrong strain, so we would expect the vaccine to be 30% effective on an average year. To be nice, let's make a bad year 20% effective, boosting the average to 40%.
Over 40 years, a person without a vaccine would be expected to get the flu five times. If the person was vaccinated every year they would get the flu three times over the 40 years with the 40% reduction. This is a 5% improvement per year. Getting vaccinated saves you, on average, one bout of the flu every 20 years.
So, if you suffer common side effects from the flu vaccine, such as fever, feeling sick, muscle pain, etc, the cure may be worse than the disease. If you do not typically suffer the side effects it provides a light benefit.
The real advantage likely comes from the herd effect. Even a poor vaccine has some benefits when it comes to slowing the spread of the flu.
By the looks of it people who do not suffer side effects should get the vaccine for the benifit of others and people who do suffer side effects should consider not getting the shots and tell everyone else to get immunized.
via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/1qPz0yf
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