PREMISE
The situation in the Middle East, and in Palestine in particular, is easy to describe.
On one side we have Israel, supported by the US
On the other side, we have the Muslim world, supported by nobody, which spans from groups openly hostile to Israel (Hamas, Iran, etc.) to moderate Muslim countries, such as Turkey or Lebanon
Some facts:
1) Israel, backed by the US, has an unmatched military power and far surpasses the military power of neighbor Arab states. At least until a few years ago
2) Israel has nukes, with most of the Middle East countries do not. Pakistan has nukes, but their arsenal is heavily guarded. Iran only recently achieved enrichment capabilities
3) Israel has the political and military support of the largest economy and more powerful military in the world, the US However, the US is losing their top stop as PPP biggest economy this year
4) most Muslim countries do not recognize the existence of Israel
5) Some countries and groups have openly called for the destruction of Israel
6) until 2001, almost all major attacks have been done by the US + Israel to targets in the middle East, Israel has been attacked sometimes although the number of Palestinians killed by far outweighs the Israeli
On September 2001 for the first time the US has been attacked on mainland on a significant kill
Regarding the Palestinian/Israel conflict in detail
1) Israel has taken some land outside the 1967 borders after the 1967 war and keeps building settlements outside the borders
2) Israel has not accepted a Palestinian State based on the 1967 borders
3) Hamas has also not accepted the existence of an Israeli state
4) Israel is forcing a blockade on Hamas
5) The PLO has accepted to recognize Israel as a state based on their 1967 borders
Then there are other complicated questions as the right of East Jerusalem as capital and the problem concerning the Right of Return
But as from the points above, I have asked in another thread and searched if there is any viable reason as form my understanding for Israel not to accept a Palestinians state based on th 1967 borders.
I have even asked for days the same question in this very forum and could not get an answer
I came to the conclusion that there is no viable reason for Israel to have taken land by war, which is also prohibited by the UN save for the fact that Israel can do so.
It is just a brute force thing
What I think should be the right thing to do by Israel is to give back the land they have taken during 1967, accept East Jerusalem as capital for the Palestinian State and accept the right of return of the Palestinians who were forced to flee before the 1947.
In short, I believe Israel should accept the requests made from the PLO and sign a peace treaty with them.
Since they are not willing to do so, and since they are the ones who kill the most, I believe Israel, the US and their supporters are the terrorists and the aggressors, and the Palestinians and the rest of the Muslim world, despite being not without guilt are the victims.
Of course, Palestinians may have an alternative, which is to accept Israeli requests, no matter how injust, just as they are politically and militarily inferior.
Not surprisingly, most Palestinians are uneasy to give up what the (and I and most UN countries) believe is their right simply because of a question of force
The base of the logic here is just about power.
Many people in this forum and in the US believe that Israel can take land during a war (despite the UN says the opposite) simply because they can.
Being there such premises, it is only logical for the people of the people in the Middle East to try to undermine such military and economic gap by acts that the West defines as “terrorism” but that may as well be defined as “self defence”
I have therefore changed my mind on the attacks at 9./11 thanks also to the discussion I had in this for,.
At the beginning, when they happened I was amazed and stunned and in pain at seeing the pain of the US people in front of the towers, including the families of the victims..
Now I understand I was played at, and I start to understand why bin Laden did what he did.
There is probably a logic behind in trying to weaken the Empire before they do far more victims than the 3000 who perished
If the West only accepts the logic of power, self-defence (branded as “terrorism” by the West) may be the only viable solution other than being victims of injustice
The attacks on 9/11, together with the cost of the Afghanistan and Iraq invasions, have brought the US debt to around 110% of the GDP and severely weakened their economic leadership.
China will pass the US as top PPP economy this year.
Thanks to this, the US is not in position to stop Iran` s nuclear program by sanctions
And I also think that Iranian leaders should be shot on the spot if they do not have a nuclear weapon program active to defend themselves from US terror
It is simply a game of power between the West(US+allies) and the people in the Middle East.
And you can`t talk to the US, they will only listen to the language of guns
I assume many people writing here would not agree with my opinion on this matter but the truth is that my opinion, as theirs, do not matter much, in fact, matters almost nothing
But what matters is the current balance of power in the Middle East and how it is evolving and I would like to talk about this now
End of premise
------------------------------------------------------------
As for the moment, I think it is clear that Israel alone, without the support of the US, could hardly have stood a chance alone against the whole Arab and Muslim world which is for the very large part hostile to them
In Isreal there are 8 million of people, 6 millions of them are Jews.
In the world there are 1.4 billion Muslims, Iran alone has a population of 70 millions and growing, Pakistan more than the double. Indonesia more than 200 millions with most of the population viewing Israel negatively
According to a 2013 BBC World Service Poll, 70% of Indonesians view Israel's influence negatively, with only 12% expressing a positive view, one of the most negative perceptions of Israel in Asia.[5]
http://ift.tt/1sZ3kc2
Israel ability to survive has stood on the fact that they have the support of the United States and they have nukes.
Only one Muslim country ahs nukes, Pakistan, but they are heavily guarded by the UN/US
Iran does not have nukes (probably) abut they will have or already have breakout capability
So far the situation until now.
Now, however, the situation is changing.
The main change at macrolevel is that the US is not or will not be the 1st economy of the world soon
This year may be the 1st year when China is the first economy in PPP
Before the end of the decade, according to the economist, China will be the number one in real terms a well
Military budget is a % of the country GDP.
The US can not increase this % as their deficit is very high and their growth slow
China has a high GDP growth and small % of military expenditure, therefore they can increase and will increase their military expenditure
The same goes for India, and many other countries
Due to the larger economy and bigger military, China will increase their footprint in Asia
The US will not be able to put any more sanctions on Iran as Iran does not need to trade with US` s allies anymore, they can trade with China and India, which are not in condition to be forced to abstain from business with Iran by the US
Russia and China are already sending low-ranked officers to the P5+1 talks with Iran.
They are not interested to push Iran to the sidelines and to play US game anymore
Here are some other points:
1) Iran economy has not been devastated by the sanctions, and now time is on Iran side, as they can start to trade outside the sphere of influence of the US which is getting larger
2) Iran` s military is increasingly capable to defend themselves, soon they will cover the main area of deficiency (anti-air attacks) with the Bavar 373 system
3) Israel is not in condition to stop Iran nuclear program alone, unless using nukes but Israel cant use nukes as this would mean the end of NPT and likely to start WWII
4) The US is barely in condition to attack all the main facilities, but the US public is against this and even with this attack the US can barely delay the nuclear program of 1-2 years The US can not stop Iran` s nuke program, unless they invade or nuke Iran. None of them will happen
5) Iran has mastered all the steps to build a bomb, including enrichment, and this knowledge can not be destroyed. In the future, Iran has made clear that they look for expanding their enrichment capabilities
As for the rest of the Middle East, Iraq is going away from sphere of US influence and going towards Iran.
Syria is under a war.
The Islamic State is spreading and they are certainly anti-US
Turkey, once a US ally, has voted against the US during recently (together with Brazil) and they are waiting and look for developments
The Saudi States are still under Saudi control, but for how long?
There may be a Saudi spring soon
Egypt is in a phase of recession, moving from Mubarak to Morsi then back to the current dictator.
Whatever the final result of the war in Iraq and Syria, it is unlikely that the US will gain anymore influence.
It is very likely that the future State in Syria/Iraq, etc will be totally outside US influence
Some forecasts about the future (5-10 years)
1) The majority of the Muslim and Arab world has not accepted the existence of Israel so far and it is unlikely that they will change their mnds now
2) If sooner or later there will be an Arab spring in Saudi Arabia as well, it is likely that US bases will be closed. In any case, China will be a major partner supplanting the US in the Middle East soon
3) Israel will find themselves isolated in a land governed by Muslims that have large armies and nuclear capability
4) Most of the Muslim world will be working with Russia/China and India. The US will have little or no economic leverage to sanction Iran, Islamic State and so on
In conclusion, I think time is not boding well for Israel and for the above reasons I do not think she can preserve their current form in the long term future.
Whatever the outcome will be (from the best one such as two state solution to the worst which may be World War III or nuclear war, etc.) I think Israel will disappear in the long future or change into something completely different (an Arab-majority state?)
My bet is 5-10 years more
I would add that my opinion it is mainly Israel that is digging their hole, but this is irrelevant
The situation in the Middle East, and in Palestine in particular, is easy to describe.
On one side we have Israel, supported by the US
On the other side, we have the Muslim world, supported by nobody, which spans from groups openly hostile to Israel (Hamas, Iran, etc.) to moderate Muslim countries, such as Turkey or Lebanon
Some facts:
1) Israel, backed by the US, has an unmatched military power and far surpasses the military power of neighbor Arab states. At least until a few years ago
2) Israel has nukes, with most of the Middle East countries do not. Pakistan has nukes, but their arsenal is heavily guarded. Iran only recently achieved enrichment capabilities
3) Israel has the political and military support of the largest economy and more powerful military in the world, the US However, the US is losing their top stop as PPP biggest economy this year
4) most Muslim countries do not recognize the existence of Israel
5) Some countries and groups have openly called for the destruction of Israel
6) until 2001, almost all major attacks have been done by the US + Israel to targets in the middle East, Israel has been attacked sometimes although the number of Palestinians killed by far outweighs the Israeli
On September 2001 for the first time the US has been attacked on mainland on a significant kill
Regarding the Palestinian/Israel conflict in detail
1) Israel has taken some land outside the 1967 borders after the 1967 war and keeps building settlements outside the borders
2) Israel has not accepted a Palestinian State based on the 1967 borders
3) Hamas has also not accepted the existence of an Israeli state
4) Israel is forcing a blockade on Hamas
5) The PLO has accepted to recognize Israel as a state based on their 1967 borders
Then there are other complicated questions as the right of East Jerusalem as capital and the problem concerning the Right of Return
But as from the points above, I have asked in another thread and searched if there is any viable reason as form my understanding for Israel not to accept a Palestinians state based on th 1967 borders.
I have even asked for days the same question in this very forum and could not get an answer
I came to the conclusion that there is no viable reason for Israel to have taken land by war, which is also prohibited by the UN save for the fact that Israel can do so.
It is just a brute force thing
What I think should be the right thing to do by Israel is to give back the land they have taken during 1967, accept East Jerusalem as capital for the Palestinian State and accept the right of return of the Palestinians who were forced to flee before the 1947.
In short, I believe Israel should accept the requests made from the PLO and sign a peace treaty with them.
Since they are not willing to do so, and since they are the ones who kill the most, I believe Israel, the US and their supporters are the terrorists and the aggressors, and the Palestinians and the rest of the Muslim world, despite being not without guilt are the victims.
Of course, Palestinians may have an alternative, which is to accept Israeli requests, no matter how injust, just as they are politically and militarily inferior.
Not surprisingly, most Palestinians are uneasy to give up what the (and I and most UN countries) believe is their right simply because of a question of force
The base of the logic here is just about power.
Many people in this forum and in the US believe that Israel can take land during a war (despite the UN says the opposite) simply because they can.
Being there such premises, it is only logical for the people of the people in the Middle East to try to undermine such military and economic gap by acts that the West defines as “terrorism” but that may as well be defined as “self defence”
I have therefore changed my mind on the attacks at 9./11 thanks also to the discussion I had in this for,.
At the beginning, when they happened I was amazed and stunned and in pain at seeing the pain of the US people in front of the towers, including the families of the victims..
Now I understand I was played at, and I start to understand why bin Laden did what he did.
There is probably a logic behind in trying to weaken the Empire before they do far more victims than the 3000 who perished
If the West only accepts the logic of power, self-defence (branded as “terrorism” by the West) may be the only viable solution other than being victims of injustice
The attacks on 9/11, together with the cost of the Afghanistan and Iraq invasions, have brought the US debt to around 110% of the GDP and severely weakened their economic leadership.
China will pass the US as top PPP economy this year.
Thanks to this, the US is not in position to stop Iran` s nuclear program by sanctions
And I also think that Iranian leaders should be shot on the spot if they do not have a nuclear weapon program active to defend themselves from US terror
It is simply a game of power between the West(US+allies) and the people in the Middle East.
And you can`t talk to the US, they will only listen to the language of guns
I assume many people writing here would not agree with my opinion on this matter but the truth is that my opinion, as theirs, do not matter much, in fact, matters almost nothing
But what matters is the current balance of power in the Middle East and how it is evolving and I would like to talk about this now
End of premise
------------------------------------------------------------
As for the moment, I think it is clear that Israel alone, without the support of the US, could hardly have stood a chance alone against the whole Arab and Muslim world which is for the very large part hostile to them
In Isreal there are 8 million of people, 6 millions of them are Jews.
In the world there are 1.4 billion Muslims, Iran alone has a population of 70 millions and growing, Pakistan more than the double. Indonesia more than 200 millions with most of the population viewing Israel negatively
According to a 2013 BBC World Service Poll, 70% of Indonesians view Israel's influence negatively, with only 12% expressing a positive view, one of the most negative perceptions of Israel in Asia.[5]
http://ift.tt/1sZ3kc2
Israel ability to survive has stood on the fact that they have the support of the United States and they have nukes.
Only one Muslim country ahs nukes, Pakistan, but they are heavily guarded by the UN/US
Iran does not have nukes (probably) abut they will have or already have breakout capability
So far the situation until now.
Now, however, the situation is changing.
The main change at macrolevel is that the US is not or will not be the 1st economy of the world soon
This year may be the 1st year when China is the first economy in PPP
Before the end of the decade, according to the economist, China will be the number one in real terms a well
Military budget is a % of the country GDP.
The US can not increase this % as their deficit is very high and their growth slow
China has a high GDP growth and small % of military expenditure, therefore they can increase and will increase their military expenditure
The same goes for India, and many other countries
Due to the larger economy and bigger military, China will increase their footprint in Asia
The US will not be able to put any more sanctions on Iran as Iran does not need to trade with US` s allies anymore, they can trade with China and India, which are not in condition to be forced to abstain from business with Iran by the US
Russia and China are already sending low-ranked officers to the P5+1 talks with Iran.
They are not interested to push Iran to the sidelines and to play US game anymore
Here are some other points:
1) Iran economy has not been devastated by the sanctions, and now time is on Iran side, as they can start to trade outside the sphere of influence of the US which is getting larger
2) Iran` s military is increasingly capable to defend themselves, soon they will cover the main area of deficiency (anti-air attacks) with the Bavar 373 system
3) Israel is not in condition to stop Iran nuclear program alone, unless using nukes but Israel cant use nukes as this would mean the end of NPT and likely to start WWII
4) The US is barely in condition to attack all the main facilities, but the US public is against this and even with this attack the US can barely delay the nuclear program of 1-2 years The US can not stop Iran` s nuke program, unless they invade or nuke Iran. None of them will happen
5) Iran has mastered all the steps to build a bomb, including enrichment, and this knowledge can not be destroyed. In the future, Iran has made clear that they look for expanding their enrichment capabilities
As for the rest of the Middle East, Iraq is going away from sphere of US influence and going towards Iran.
Syria is under a war.
The Islamic State is spreading and they are certainly anti-US
Turkey, once a US ally, has voted against the US during recently (together with Brazil) and they are waiting and look for developments
The Saudi States are still under Saudi control, but for how long?
There may be a Saudi spring soon
Egypt is in a phase of recession, moving from Mubarak to Morsi then back to the current dictator.
Whatever the final result of the war in Iraq and Syria, it is unlikely that the US will gain anymore influence.
It is very likely that the future State in Syria/Iraq, etc will be totally outside US influence
Some forecasts about the future (5-10 years)
1) The majority of the Muslim and Arab world has not accepted the existence of Israel so far and it is unlikely that they will change their mnds now
2) If sooner or later there will be an Arab spring in Saudi Arabia as well, it is likely that US bases will be closed. In any case, China will be a major partner supplanting the US in the Middle East soon
3) Israel will find themselves isolated in a land governed by Muslims that have large armies and nuclear capability
4) Most of the Muslim world will be working with Russia/China and India. The US will have little or no economic leverage to sanction Iran, Islamic State and so on
In conclusion, I think time is not boding well for Israel and for the above reasons I do not think she can preserve their current form in the long term future.
Whatever the outcome will be (from the best one such as two state solution to the worst which may be World War III or nuclear war, etc.) I think Israel will disappear in the long future or change into something completely different (an Arab-majority state?)
My bet is 5-10 years more
I would add that my opinion it is mainly Israel that is digging their hole, but this is irrelevant
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