With the South African elections coming up on the 7th of May, I thought there might be some interest in it on these boards as I know that there are a small number of South African's here and a lot more people are interested in SA after the whole Oscar fiasco.
Briefly, to my understanding, the situation is as follows: (This is based on my own knowledge and interpretation of news and commentary in SA, so anyone else who disagrees or has anything to add should feel free to do so!)
The country is currently governed by an ANC (African National Congress) government that got ~65% in the previous election. The ANC is the party of Nelson Mandela, and the party that takes credit for the liberation of South Africa from the Apartheid regime of the National Party. The ANC is a pretty left of centre party, and is in current alliance with the South African Communist Party and COSATU (Confederation of South African Trade Unions). The current President is Jacob Zuma.
In opposition is the DA (Democratic Alliance), led by Helen Zille. Formed out the the ashes of the Democratic Party and the New National Party. The Democratic Party was the main official opposition during the Apartheid years (seeing as the ANC was banned), and the New National Party was to be the re-birth of the National Party (who had been in charge of SA since 1948 up to 1994 when the ANC won the first democratic election).
The DA is still left of centre but to the right of the ANC.
The new kid on the Block is the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), led by Julius Malema. Julius Malema is the ousted head of the ANC Youth League. The EFF is even to the left of the ANC (and by implications the Communist Party). They are also relatively militant in their rhetoric.
Current polls indicate that the ANC will garner about 63% (a drop of about 3%), the DA 22% (a gain of about 6%) and the EFF 5% (a gain of 5% form zero as they are a new party), in the National Election.
I tend to think these polls are pretty accurate and they align with my own predictions.
What is of interest is the outcomes of the Provincial Elections. Briefly SA has 9 provinces, each with their own Premier, Parliament and Legislature. Currently the ANC controls 9 provinces and the DA one (the Western Cape).
Polls indicate that the DA will keep the Western Cape and most of the other provinces will remain ANC controlled. It is Gauteng, the economic heartland of the Country (and some would argue, at least up until recently, the Continent) where the most interesting battle is occurring. While the ANC has been in control of the province since 1994 (results in the 2009 election being: 64%), the DA has been steadily growing in Gauteng. Furthermore they have invested a massive amount of time and effort in their Gauteng campaign, essentially campaigning on their ability to win Gauteng away from the ANC.
While it is unlikely that they will gain more votes than the ANC in Gauteng, the rise of the EFF adds an interesting new variable to the equation. While not the most likely outcome, it is not unforeseeable for the DA and EFF together to gain more votes than the ANC in Gauteng.
This of course raises the question of a coalition government, the possibility of which has been denied by both the DA and EFF, saying they would not work with each other and the EFF saying they would not work with anybody. Of course, when the rubber hits the road these election promises are likely to be abandoned in favour of more practical outcomes.
If anybody is still reading at this point :) then I hope I've given you a brief view into our upcoming elections. Please feel free to criticize or correct anything you disagree with or ask any questions for more clarification.
Briefly, to my understanding, the situation is as follows: (This is based on my own knowledge and interpretation of news and commentary in SA, so anyone else who disagrees or has anything to add should feel free to do so!)
The country is currently governed by an ANC (African National Congress) government that got ~65% in the previous election. The ANC is the party of Nelson Mandela, and the party that takes credit for the liberation of South Africa from the Apartheid regime of the National Party. The ANC is a pretty left of centre party, and is in current alliance with the South African Communist Party and COSATU (Confederation of South African Trade Unions). The current President is Jacob Zuma.
In opposition is the DA (Democratic Alliance), led by Helen Zille. Formed out the the ashes of the Democratic Party and the New National Party. The Democratic Party was the main official opposition during the Apartheid years (seeing as the ANC was banned), and the New National Party was to be the re-birth of the National Party (who had been in charge of SA since 1948 up to 1994 when the ANC won the first democratic election).
The DA is still left of centre but to the right of the ANC.
The new kid on the Block is the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), led by Julius Malema. Julius Malema is the ousted head of the ANC Youth League. The EFF is even to the left of the ANC (and by implications the Communist Party). They are also relatively militant in their rhetoric.
Current polls indicate that the ANC will garner about 63% (a drop of about 3%), the DA 22% (a gain of about 6%) and the EFF 5% (a gain of 5% form zero as they are a new party), in the National Election.
I tend to think these polls are pretty accurate and they align with my own predictions.
What is of interest is the outcomes of the Provincial Elections. Briefly SA has 9 provinces, each with their own Premier, Parliament and Legislature. Currently the ANC controls 9 provinces and the DA one (the Western Cape).
Polls indicate that the DA will keep the Western Cape and most of the other provinces will remain ANC controlled. It is Gauteng, the economic heartland of the Country (and some would argue, at least up until recently, the Continent) where the most interesting battle is occurring. While the ANC has been in control of the province since 1994 (results in the 2009 election being: 64%), the DA has been steadily growing in Gauteng. Furthermore they have invested a massive amount of time and effort in their Gauteng campaign, essentially campaigning on their ability to win Gauteng away from the ANC.
While it is unlikely that they will gain more votes than the ANC in Gauteng, the rise of the EFF adds an interesting new variable to the equation. While not the most likely outcome, it is not unforeseeable for the DA and EFF together to gain more votes than the ANC in Gauteng.
This of course raises the question of a coalition government, the possibility of which has been denied by both the DA and EFF, saying they would not work with each other and the EFF saying they would not work with anybody. Of course, when the rubber hits the road these election promises are likely to be abandoned in favour of more practical outcomes.
If anybody is still reading at this point :) then I hope I've given you a brief view into our upcoming elections. Please feel free to criticize or correct anything you disagree with or ask any questions for more clarification.
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