Whoever the Dems end up nominating, I think they'll probably win.
There's a lot of voters who are going to vote "R" because they always vote "R". There's a lot of voters who are going to vote Trump because they believe in him even though he's not very believable, and even though he's not done a good job of delivering on some of his more appealing campaign promises.
But very few of those people are in the middle, and none of them are on the left. So I think it comes down to the mood of the people in the middle - swing voters in swing states specifically - and whether it's changed much since 2016.
Swing voters aren't looking at Hillary this time around, which has got to affect their mood one way or another. And Trump has been an unremitting jackass throughout his first term. Tabula rasa, nominee Trump vs nominee Hillary, Trump barely wins in 2016. In 2020, those same voters are looking at a Trump who now has a track record as president, versus one of a handful of Democrats.
I figure, any one of those handful of Democrats will do better than Trump in the general campaign. Trump will have to rely on his strategy of populist rallies and rhetoric. This was good at capturing the core of the GOP in 2016. I doubt it's going to capture anyone in the middle in 2020. He didn't drain the swamp. He got impeached. He's obviously a jackass. Any one of the Democrats should be able to put together a more coherent, more plausible-sounding stump speech for the people in the middle.
Etc. I think the voters in the middle are going to be inclined to take a chance, even on Bernie if it comes to that, rather than put up with Trump for another four years.
Really, after Trump, what's the worst that could happen? Why not try something else?
There's a lot of voters who are going to vote "R" because they always vote "R". There's a lot of voters who are going to vote Trump because they believe in him even though he's not very believable, and even though he's not done a good job of delivering on some of his more appealing campaign promises.
But very few of those people are in the middle, and none of them are on the left. So I think it comes down to the mood of the people in the middle - swing voters in swing states specifically - and whether it's changed much since 2016.
Swing voters aren't looking at Hillary this time around, which has got to affect their mood one way or another. And Trump has been an unremitting jackass throughout his first term. Tabula rasa, nominee Trump vs nominee Hillary, Trump barely wins in 2016. In 2020, those same voters are looking at a Trump who now has a track record as president, versus one of a handful of Democrats.
I figure, any one of those handful of Democrats will do better than Trump in the general campaign. Trump will have to rely on his strategy of populist rallies and rhetoric. This was good at capturing the core of the GOP in 2016. I doubt it's going to capture anyone in the middle in 2020. He didn't drain the swamp. He got impeached. He's obviously a jackass. Any one of the Democrats should be able to put together a more coherent, more plausible-sounding stump speech for the people in the middle.
Etc. I think the voters in the middle are going to be inclined to take a chance, even on Bernie if it comes to that, rather than put up with Trump for another four years.
Really, after Trump, what's the worst that could happen? Why not try something else?
via International Skeptics Forum https://ift.tt/374bbhD
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