Not knowing the answer to this has bugged me for ages...
If an event is hypothesized to have probability x, how many observations of the event not happening does it require to invalidate the hypothesis, or of being confident that 'x' is wrong?
e.g. I hypothesize that there is a 1 in 100 of an earthquake in a given year, how many years of no earthquakes would it take before I could be confident that 1:100 is not correct
If an event is hypothesized to have probability x, how many observations of the event not happening does it require to invalidate the hypothesis, or of being confident that 'x' is wrong?
e.g. I hypothesize that there is a 1 in 100 of an earthquake in a given year, how many years of no earthquakes would it take before I could be confident that 1:100 is not correct
via JREF Forum http://ift.tt/1r6fA7W
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