One, finite, life

- I'd like to open a new thread, but one related to an old one -- "Immortality and Bayesian Statistics" (or, something like that). I would have continued the old one, but I haven't been able to find it -- and, this one does have a significantly different conclusion...

- The following is an introduction.

- I think that
1. I can virtually prove that the consensus scientific hypothesis about human mortality is incorrect.
2. That hypothesis is that we each have but one, finite life to live.
3. The likelihood of my current existence -- given that scientific hypothesis -- is about 7 billion over infinity, or essentially zero…
4. IOW, given the consensus scientific hypothesis, my current existence is extremely unlikely.
5. That premise has a mathematical implication re the probability that the consensus scientific hypothesis is correct -- or not.
6. This implication is indefinite, as there are three other variables in the appropriate equation.
7. P(H|E) = P(E|H)*P(H)/( P(E|H)*P(H)+P(E|~H)*P(~H)).
8. Including my estimated numbers, I get:
P(H|E) = 7,000,000,000/∞*.99/(7,000,000,000/∞*.99+ .00052*.01), or
9. P(H|E) = 0.
10. IOW, the posterior probability that we each have but one finite life to live is virtually zero.
11. All I need do now is support my estimates…

- I'll be back to do that.

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