Technical Analysis II

This is a continuation thread from here.

Posted By:kmortis

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samson (Post 11017208) I will wipe the floor with unobtainium (I hope it's a reasonably inexpensive cleaning product) but I am having computer issues. I would like to short light sweet crude at 39.17 right now... ETA buy stop loss 43.50, no profit target but will advise when the moment arrives.

ha. if you can beat the Skeptica base fund you'll be annihilating a buy and hold on the S&P from 01 Jan 2015, (edit and just beat 01 Jan 2014 @ 1834, currently too lulz) that would be a good start. I suggest you set realistic goals to start, to avoid disappointment, there is after all only less than one month left until Year End Reporting ;)



So as we have had a change of ownership of one fund following a reluctant client redemption, and the fund has a healthy profit buffer in place now, and could survive nearly 3xDDmax (3 x the maximum running drawdown thus far, booked out as an actual loss) and still be at around 100%, at the beginning of month 2 the internal leverage has been increased across the board by +62.5% to start to speed things up a bit.

[Censored] the bearded one is also ecstatic with his way above chance Month 1 performance and said we could have won the $Million anyway with this performance a couple of years back, but he's definitely interested in a Forbes membership one day if possible (quickly please he doesnt have 35 years to wait) and so his internal leverage has now been wound up by +80 to +100%

in both cases these funds have now changed their nature from the smooth defensive "safe start" Skeptica approach with limited running drawdowns, into much more aggressive funds by nature. this will be reflected moving forwards as higher running drawdowns than the Skeptica Funds.

The fast cumulative nature of the compounding growth now means each trade on each account is taken as 1 + X% of the increased balance, so a +20% account size means each trade is 1.2 x original trade lot size, on a per trade basis.. ie an increase from +20.00% to 21.00% means the system next takes 1.21 lots, instead of 1.2. usefully, it obviously also decreases lot size automatically (at my end, I cant speak for each individual system's behaviour) as an account reduces size too.

hence the balance will start to go exponential extremely quickly IF the continuing trade feed continues to perform at above chance levels, to apply continuous upwards pressure.

with the considerably increased leverage on these 2 accounts now too, if we continue going upwards I would expect them both to outperform and catch all the Skeptica funds fairly quickly moving forwards. *Mr $Million* is now running at Stock Slayer leverage settings, but just with the original 4 Skeptica traders only.

of course the change brings a risk that increasing the leverage (greed) at the same time as the system runs into a thus-far uncharacteristic series of bad losses, and the higher leverage destroys faster than the gains were built. happily however this fund is a pair trade pitted against (and funded by) an Apple Short sale at $120 which is not looking like new all time highs any time soon either.

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