I once read a book that talked about just how rapidly human intelligence evolved, and how it was quite an extraordinary change in a very small amount of time. That book was some years ago, but at the time at least, the author wondered what drastic change must have driven such rapid evolution.
Reading a couple of threads got me thinking about the pace of evolution, and whether or not it could be forced. It led me to pose the following scenario.
Suppose an eccentric billionaire was obsessed with proving the truth, or falsehood, of evolution. In his will, he left his fortune to fund a very long term experiment, the results of which would prove that species could evolve, or that they would not.
He's going to leave his money to breed intelligent cats. Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that one could devise some sort of test of feline cognitive ability. (Based on my cats' behavior, that might in itself be impossible. However, we tend to think that some cats are smarter than others. For the purposes of this thread, they will be.)
He'll fund the upkeep of a country home where 1000 or so cats will be raised. All kittens will be tested just before sexual maturity. All but the ones with the highest scores will be neutered, and live out their lives as pets, or at least reasonably well cared for animals in a large house. (No kittens are harmed as a result of this thought experiment.) A billion dollars will buy a lot of cat food. The interest on a billion dollars will buy a lot of cat food, and lab assistants, and property taxes on a very large cat mansion. The experiment could theoretically go for as long as civilization endured.
Would that be long enough to evolve a new species of more intelligent cat? With such extreme selection pressure, where reproductive success is almost guaranteed for intelligent animals, and practically impossible for less intelligent animals, how many generations would it take? A thousand? A million?
Of course, I am sure the actual answer is "no one knows", but is there any informed speculation on the subject?
Reading a couple of threads got me thinking about the pace of evolution, and whether or not it could be forced. It led me to pose the following scenario.
Suppose an eccentric billionaire was obsessed with proving the truth, or falsehood, of evolution. In his will, he left his fortune to fund a very long term experiment, the results of which would prove that species could evolve, or that they would not.
He's going to leave his money to breed intelligent cats. Let us assume, for the sake of argument, that one could devise some sort of test of feline cognitive ability. (Based on my cats' behavior, that might in itself be impossible. However, we tend to think that some cats are smarter than others. For the purposes of this thread, they will be.)
He'll fund the upkeep of a country home where 1000 or so cats will be raised. All kittens will be tested just before sexual maturity. All but the ones with the highest scores will be neutered, and live out their lives as pets, or at least reasonably well cared for animals in a large house. (No kittens are harmed as a result of this thought experiment.) A billion dollars will buy a lot of cat food. The interest on a billion dollars will buy a lot of cat food, and lab assistants, and property taxes on a very large cat mansion. The experiment could theoretically go for as long as civilization endured.
Would that be long enough to evolve a new species of more intelligent cat? With such extreme selection pressure, where reproductive success is almost guaranteed for intelligent animals, and practically impossible for less intelligent animals, how many generations would it take? A thousand? A million?
Of course, I am sure the actual answer is "no one knows", but is there any informed speculation on the subject?
via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/1zb8ojS
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