mardi 8 mars 2016

Marco Rubio is done

I think that's probably the biggest takeaway from today's primaries.

Good day for Trump, great really. Because there continues to be no coalescing around a single alternative to Trump, and time is running out. If Trump wins Florida and Ohio next week, that's pretty much all she wrote (or so they say). But Rubio looks badly wounded, so stopping Trump from winning Florida looks unlikely.

Florida polls

Trump up by 16 on average and 20 in the most recent one with the largest sample and smallest MoE.

OTOH, Kasich might win Ohio if Rubio voters defect to him:
Ohio polls

Trump still has a small lead though. And Florida is the bigger prize of the two: 99 delegates to 66 for Ohio.

:popcorn6


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