In the early part of 2013, taxes were increased as part of a budget deal. These tax hikes also were not the sort of "we raised these taxes but cut those" deals, where proponents say they aren't really raising taxes at all, at least for most people, while opponents say they are "the greatest tax hike in American history". No, these were real tax increases that affected almost everyone, although they hit rich people harder than poor people.
So, now that we can look back two years and see the consequences, what happened? Did unemployment soar? Did inflation go out of control? Did the economy stop growing? And what about government revenue? Did it go up or down?
Well, the economy is just fine, and certainly no worse than it was in 2013. Government revenues went up.
Can we put a stake in the heart of supply side economics? It's a stupid theory that doesn't work.
As it turns out, I've done a fair amount of research trying to find any correlation between taxes and unemployment, taxes and economic growth, taxes and inflation, taxes and....darned near anything. Within the range of taxation that has been present in America since the beginning of the 20th century, raising and lowering taxes has such little effect, if any, that it's unmeasurable. I've read papers that tried, and every one has either mathematical models with obvious errors, or cherry picked data, coming up with reasons why we should ignore certain times when taxes went up or down, but the economy didn't do what the paper said would happen.
But I have no doubt that Paul Ryan will be proposing a new, supply side influenced, budget and tax plan very shortly, and columnists, radio commentators, talking media heads, and morons on the internet will all be saying that "everyone knows" that raising taxes is always bad, and kills jobs, and .....yada yada yada. Cutting taxes, on the other hand, always....fill in the blank with other stuff that's wrong.
In my humble opinion, taxes should be used to pay the bills. How high should taxes be? It depends on the size of the bills.
And I understand that if you did suddenly make a huge tax increase, it would probably cause a problem. I think I even understand why. However, no one will ever propose such a sudden, dramatic, change in policy. Within the range of things that people will actually propose, taxes could go up, or they could go down, and it wouldn't be the end of our economy.
So, now that we can look back two years and see the consequences, what happened? Did unemployment soar? Did inflation go out of control? Did the economy stop growing? And what about government revenue? Did it go up or down?
Well, the economy is just fine, and certainly no worse than it was in 2013. Government revenues went up.
Can we put a stake in the heart of supply side economics? It's a stupid theory that doesn't work.
As it turns out, I've done a fair amount of research trying to find any correlation between taxes and unemployment, taxes and economic growth, taxes and inflation, taxes and....darned near anything. Within the range of taxation that has been present in America since the beginning of the 20th century, raising and lowering taxes has such little effect, if any, that it's unmeasurable. I've read papers that tried, and every one has either mathematical models with obvious errors, or cherry picked data, coming up with reasons why we should ignore certain times when taxes went up or down, but the economy didn't do what the paper said would happen.
But I have no doubt that Paul Ryan will be proposing a new, supply side influenced, budget and tax plan very shortly, and columnists, radio commentators, talking media heads, and morons on the internet will all be saying that "everyone knows" that raising taxes is always bad, and kills jobs, and .....yada yada yada. Cutting taxes, on the other hand, always....fill in the blank with other stuff that's wrong.
In my humble opinion, taxes should be used to pay the bills. How high should taxes be? It depends on the size of the bills.
And I understand that if you did suddenly make a huge tax increase, it would probably cause a problem. I think I even understand why. However, no one will ever propose such a sudden, dramatic, change in policy. Within the range of things that people will actually propose, taxes could go up, or they could go down, and it wouldn't be the end of our economy.
via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/1KwttJg
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire