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Originally Posted by The Don (Post 12336231)
No doubt all of this was covered in excruciating detail in David Davis' industry sector impact analyses and various mitigating strategies identified. :rolleyes:
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No deal Brexit In case of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on the 29th March 2019, there would be no Transition Phase, the UK would leave the Single Market, the Customs Union and the European Court of Justice jurisdiction. Therefore, WTO rules would kick in and numerous frictions would heavily impact our operations and that of our supply chain. Airbus’ production is likely to be severely disrupted due to interruption to the flow of parts and/or discontinued airworthiness. Given today’s prevailing uncertainty, buffer stocks would be needed (estimated value circa €1B, not accounting for lead time and logistics disruptions). Given Airbus’ steep ramp-up demands on the best-selling A320 and A350 families, our critical industrial capabilities are already running at full capacity. With no spare capacity left over years to come, every disruption to production would most likely turn into an unrecoverable delay. Every week of unrecoverable delay would entail material working capital impact, re-allocation cost, cost for inefficient work, penalty payments to customers and up to €1B weekly loss of turnover. Despite the incremental stocks, the disruptions in a no deal Brexit situation are likely to add up to several weeks; potentially translating into a multi-billion impact on Airbus. |
UK jobs are at risk in the longer term, but in the shorter term it is Airbus as a whole that is at risk.
EDIT: And of course if Airbus needs government support in the short term, Boeing will be running straight to the WTO.
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