Upsurge in earthquakes predicted in 2018

When I first read this headline I was pretty skeptical. The Daily Mail said:

"Deadly earthquakes could hit a BILLION people next year because of Earth's slowing rotation"

Smelled like scaremongering. Sure, it could happen. But a lot of things could happen. Is it really significantly more likely to happen next year than it was this year or last year?

Then I saw a similar headline in the The Guardian:

Upsurge in big earthquakes predicted for 2018 as Earth rotation slows

Quote:

Scientists say number of severe quakes is likely to rise strongly next year because of a periodic slowing of the Earth’s rotation . . . Although such fluctuations in rotation are small – changing the length of the day by a millisecond – they could still be implicated in the release of vast amounts of underground energy, it is argued. The link between Earth’s rotation and seismic activity was highlighted last month in a paper by Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado in Boulder and Rebecca Bendick of the University of Montana in Missoula presented at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America. “The correlation between Earth’s rotation and earthquake activity is strong and suggests there is going to be an increase in numbers of intense earthquakes next year,” Bilham told the Observer last week. In their study, Bilham and Bendick looked at earthquakes of magnitude 7 and greater that had occurred since 1900. “Major earthquakes have been well recorded for more than a century and that gives us a good record to study,” said Bilham. They found five periods when there had been significantly higher numbers of large earthquakes compared with other times. “In these periods, there were between 25 to 30 intense earthquakes a year,” said Bilham. “The rest of the time the average figure was around 15 major earthquakes a year.” The researchers searched to find correlations between these periods of intense seismic activity and other factors and discovered that when Earth’s rotation decreased slightly it was followed by periods of increased numbers of intense earthquakes. “The rotation of the Earth does change slightly – by a millisecond a day sometimes – and that can be measured very accurately by atomic clocks,” said Bilham. Bilham and Bendick found that there had been periods of around five years when Earth’s rotation slowed by such an amount several times over the past century and a half. Crucially, these periods were followed by periods when the numbers of intense earthquakes increased. “It is straightforward,” said Bilham. “The Earth is offering us a five-year heads-up on future earthquakes.”

Interesting finding if true. Still doesn't show exactly where and when any particular major earthquake will occur. Does this pass the sniff test?

via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/2B87SHt